Friday, October 3, 2008

Pakistan, the next 20 years

In view of the history of Pakistan, five trends seem likely to occur in the next twenty years:
2008-10: Disenchantment with the West
Disenchantment with the West, having acquired a new hype in July, is likely to escalate relentlessly because there is a regrettable lack of quality communication between West and the people of Pakistan, especially the unschooled masses who have been the true balancing factor in the life of this country.
2010-16: Isolation
Once the phase of disenchantment reaches its peak, an increasing number of Pakistanis including the educated segment are likely to become culturally and mentally isolated from the West.
Possible Conflict
Conflict of interests easily explodes into its actual equivalent when negotiations fail. The absence of quality dialogue between West and the masses of Pakistan also can lead to an actual conflict if disenchantment and isolation are not addressed in the earlier stages.
2017-26: Crisis of federation
Pakistan was all about discovering new possibilities but the various theories about forms of government tried out here, and the existing perception about federation, have been West-defined to various extents. These may get affected as a consequence. In that case, for a decade beginning around 2017, it may seem as if the idea of Pakistan as conceived in the Lahore Resolution of 1940 has become irrelevant in some ways if not all.
2026-27: Emergence of inherent unity
The units which now constitute the federation of Pakistan have been interdependent since the earliest known period of civilization. This inherent unity of the region can easily surprise the onlookers by discovering a new channel for its continuation.
It may be seen that at each stage there are possibilities for preventing conflict and facilitating healthy growth. They require vision and where there is no vision, people perish.


  1. I am just wondering what the leadership would be like for this period 2008-2027? Any ideas about that? Disenchantment may escalate but it has happened in the past that the ruling class has dictated who we align with regardless of what popular choice might have been. Similarly Isolation if it is self imposed could be positive but if it is something like imposed on Libya, it could make us very lonely? Please do shed some light on the aspects of this Isolation.

    I hope I am able to communicate my thoughts.

    Ahmad Safi

  2. Ahmad Sahib, thanks. The basic character of leadership may not change in this period but the masses are likely to become increasingly more interested in the affairs of their country, a process which seems to have started already. I can describe my personal hunch about the kind of isolation which seems to be in the making in a single word from the work of your illustrious father Ibne Safi. The word is SHIKRAL.

  3. ppl desperately need the revival of true meanings of life, faith, national and personal conducts and also to be refreshed through influence by some powerful forces.

    No force can be as powerful to lead ppl as Religion itself. And I think Iqbal 3/4 part of work encircles the true (forgotten) spirit of Islam and that must be memorized.

  4. :) Can't express my feelings in words..."2010-16: Isolation" phase has just started with the facebook's issue

  5. Meanwhile, India will join China and US as the triumvirate superpowers of the world.

    Seriously folks, Pakistan has never been together in history. And, it is just a fictional entity created 60 years ago as an experiment that is now going badly.

    Countries and identities defined by religion alone don't work. Lets dissolve this experiment and start afresh.