In the earlier days of this blog, I posted some "forecasts" about the future of Pakistan. Recently, I have received several suggestions that these should be revisited. So, here is the original post of 3 October 2008 without any modifications.POSTED ON 3 OCTOBER 2008: In view of the history of Pakistan, five trends seem likely to occur in the next twenty years:
- 2008-10: Disenchantment with the West
Disenchantment with the West, having acquired a new hype in July, is likely to escalate relentlessly because there is a regrettable lack of quality communication between West and the people of Pakistan, especially the unschooled masses who have been the true balancing factor in the life of this country.
- 2010-16: Isolation
Once the phase of disenchantment reaches its peak, an increasing number of Pakistanis including the educated segment are likely to become culturally and mentally isolated from the West.
- Possible Conflict
Conflict of interests easily explodes into its actual equivalent when negotiations fail. The absence of quality dialogue between West and the masses of Pakistan also can lead to an actual conflict if disenchantment and isolation are not addressed in the earlier stages.
- 2017-26: Crisis of federation
Pakistan was all about discovering new possibilities but the various theories about forms of government tried out here, and the existing perception about federation, have been West-defined to various extents. These may get affected as a consequence. In that case, for a decade beginning around 2017, it may seem as if the idea of Pakistan as conceived in the Lahore Resolution of 1940 has become irrelevant in some ways if not all.
- 2026-27: Emergence of inherent unity
The units which now constitute the federation of Pakistan have been interdependent since the earliest known period of civilization. This inherent unity of the region can easily surprise the onlookers by discovering a new channel for its continuation.
It may be seen that at each stage there are possibilities for preventing conflict and facilitating healthy growth. They require vision and where there is no vision, people perish.
...hhmmm....Shafique Sahib...intresting post...
ReplyDeleteWhile the integrity of Pakistan is at stake...this post give some hopes...I am happy to see the end where after the crisis of the federation...Pakistan still will live to have the final UNITY...which means....Pakistan will survive at the end....
Sounds so relaxing....
Thanks for shairng.
Clear that we are well into this phase:
ReplyDelete"...an increasing number of Pakistanis including the educated segment are likely to become culturally and mentally isolated from the West."
How do we (Or do you recommend?) ways we decrease these difficulties? Do we push against the increased barriers outside our own choices that limit ease of access to one another or do we go with the unfortunate flow?
Glad to see the way you put this:
"The absence of quality dialogue...can lead to an actual conflict if disenchantment and isolation are not addressed..."
How long before our efforts to dialogue may be too late or is there any way to know?
yes agreed.....Pakistan will rise in the coming decade inshaALLAh but for that rise we need to groom our youth now and educate our masses. We need to take some strict decisions involving NO to USA and then becoming self reliant as a Nation, developing the level of Khudi in our self and then spreading it as catalyst.
ReplyDeleteI am writing this with reference to the extra-judicial killing of a civilian by some security personnel in Karachi.
ReplyDeletePlease recall memories of pre-1979 Iranian regime. They were as corrupt as any other dictator of a third world country and vice versa. Then, what motivated, aggravated even forced 35 million masses to come to Tehran and chant one and only one slogan "MARG BER SHAH" i.e. Death for King (Contrary to Long Live the King)? I want to remind that people chanting the slogan belonged to many different factions, religious-groups, Communists and even Liberals. The slogan DAROOD BER KHUMANI was listened very late. Initially, they only wanted one thing that was to get rid of the King.
In my understanding, it was SAVAK, a secret police, domestic security and intelligence agency. SAVAK has been described as Iran's "most hated and feared institution" prior to the revolution of 1979 because of its practice of torturing and executing opponents.
Yesterday’s incident was neither first, and perhaps, nor the last of its nature; similar incident occurred in Sialkot, a few months back and there are many which are un-reported.
Will 2011’s Islamabad give reflection of 1978’s Tehran?