Wednesday, May 25, 2011

"Pakistan: the Next 20 Years"

In the earlier days of this blog, I posted some "forecasts" about the future of Pakistan. Recently, I have received several suggestions that these should be revisited. So, here is the original post of 3 October 2008 without any modifications.

POSTED ON 3 OCTOBER 2008: In view of the history of Pakistan, five trends seem likely to occur in the next twenty years:
  • 2008-10: Disenchantment with the West
Disenchantment with the West, having acquired a new hype in July, is likely to escalate relentlessly because there is a regrettable lack of quality communication between West and the people of Pakistan, especially the unschooled masses who have been the true balancing factor in the life of this country.
  • 2010-16: Isolation
Once the phase of disenchantment reaches its peak, an increasing number of Pakistanis including the educated segment are likely to become culturally and mentally isolated from the West.
  • Possible Conflict
Conflict of interests easily explodes into its actual equivalent when negotiations fail. The absence of quality dialogue between West and the masses of Pakistan also can lead to an actual conflict if disenchantment and isolation are not addressed in the earlier stages.
  • 2017-26: Crisis of federation
Pakistan was all about discovering new possibilities but the various theories about forms of government tried out here, and the existing perception about federation, have been West-defined to various extents. These may get affected as a consequence. In that case, for a decade beginning around 2017, it may seem as if the idea of Pakistan as conceived in the Lahore Resolution of 1940 has become irrelevant in some ways if not all.
  • 2026-27: Emergence of inherent unity
The units which now constitute the federation of Pakistan have been interdependent since the earliest known period of civilization. This inherent unity of the region can easily surprise the onlookers by discovering a new channel for its continuation.
It may be seen that at each stage there are possibilities for preventing conflict and facilitating healthy growth. They require vision and where there is no vision, people perish.


  1. ...hhmmm....Shafique Sahib...intresting post...

    While the integrity of Pakistan is at stake...this post give some hopes...I am happy to see the end where after the crisis of the federation...Pakistan still will live to have the final UNITY...which means....Pakistan will survive at the end....

    Sounds so relaxing....

    Thanks for shairng.

  2. Clear that we are well into this phase:

    " increasing number of Pakistanis including the educated segment are likely to become culturally and mentally isolated from the West."

    How do we (Or do you recommend?) ways we decrease these difficulties? Do we push against the increased barriers outside our own choices that limit ease of access to one another or do we go with the unfortunate flow?

    Glad to see the way you put this:
    "The absence of quality dialogue...can lead to an actual conflict if disenchantment and isolation are not addressed..."

    How long before our efforts to dialogue may be too late or is there any way to know?

  3. yes agreed.....Pakistan will rise in the coming decade inshaALLAh but for that rise we need to groom our youth now and educate our masses. We need to take some strict decisions involving NO to USA and then becoming self reliant as a Nation, developing the level of Khudi in our self and then spreading it as catalyst.

  4. I am writing this with reference to the extra-judicial killing of a civilian by some security personnel in Karachi.

    Please recall memories of pre-1979 Iranian regime. They were as corrupt as any other dictator of a third world country and vice versa. Then, what motivated, aggravated even forced 35 million masses to come to Tehran and chant one and only one slogan "MARG BER SHAH" i.e. Death for King (Contrary to Long Live the King)? I want to remind that people chanting the slogan belonged to many different factions, religious-groups, Communists and even Liberals. The slogan DAROOD BER KHUMANI was listened very late. Initially, they only wanted one thing that was to get rid of the King.

    In my understanding, it was SAVAK, a secret police, domestic security and intelligence agency. SAVAK has been described as Iran's "most hated and feared institution" prior to the revolution of 1979 because of its practice of torturing and executing opponents.

    Yesterday’s incident was neither first, and perhaps, nor the last of its nature; similar incident occurred in Sialkot, a few months back and there are many which are un-reported.

    Will 2011’s Islamabad give reflection of 1978’s Tehran?

    Well you have to accept the fact that we are a nation that is in trouble and where there are alot of gaps such as communication gap between the public and the government, gap between generations, gap between different thought processes ,gap between poor and rich that is increasing, gap between onlookers to the stupid"roshan khiyal" of Musharaffs followers and to the long bearded self-taught exctremist black beards(not mentioning the Scholars ).These gaps have amalgamated in creating such a situation in the nation that almost everyone is clueless first about the nation,secondly about themselves, thirdly about the future of themselves in this nation,fourthly wether it will survive the barrages of storm and adversity thy nation is getting hit by ,neverless will it be one of those countries which are just like the living dead for example the small barren african nations.
    I myself am clueless that if the The Two nation theory was hypothesis to be refined and followed than why does the author of the hypothesis seems changed to me than the Shaheen(Iqbal) to the showpiece of Congress (AZAD),because sadly and truthfully his predictions seemed to be the most accurate yet,weather liking or not ...again saying the same thing the GAP OF THOUGHT ..IQBAL vs AZAD's thought....!!
    conclusively we have become that nation that is daydreaming alot that one day everything will change,and yes things will change but if remains they will change as dreamt ,but for towards the worse..